Microsoft’s Fuzzy Math and Hallucinations?

There is an old saying "Lies, Damn Lies, and then there are statistics." Microsoft however goes waaaay past this in the latest reported numbers and their own predictions.

I think they must be handing out some of Albert Hofmann's meds in Redmond these days. Fuzzy math and crazy predictions rule the day at Microsoft. In the space of about a week the drum beating coming from Microsoft is a bit ridiculous.

Here's what I am talking about:

• Microsoft's Xbox 360 mis-leading numbers to the gaming press released today.
• Bill Gates speaking in Tokyo last week claiming the "very rapid sales rate" of Vista claiming it is doing fine. Many say that Vista is the worse blunder in technology ever.
• Ballmers' statements of how Microsoft does not need Yahoo to catch Google in search while the latest numbers come out showing Google increasing its lead in US and in Europe.
• Zune sales numbers are touted as selling over 2 million units.
• Windows Mobile platforms expected to account for 40% of global smartphone market by fiscal 2012, according to Eddie Wu, managing director of Microsoft ODM embedded devices.

Xbox 360 Microsoft tells the gaming press that Xbox 360 has become the first console in the current generation to sell 10 million units in the US. Microsoft also points out its 19 million units sold worldwide. Seems Microsoft thinks there is much to be proud of.

Xbox 360 was released on November 22, 2005. The PlayStation 3 was launched on November 17, 2006. The Nintendo Wii was released on November 19, 2006.

Even with the Xbox 360 having a full year of sales over the competition the numbers are not that impressive, really. Nintendo's Wii is has sold 8.8 million units in the US as of the end of March, and will certainly reach that same 10 million unit milestone, a year sooner! Nintendo Wii has sold 24.45 million units worldwide already passing Xbox 360 sales. Nice that Microsoft saw it fit to leave out the market leader in its calculations. We call that "fuzzy math" here.

Vista I could write volumes on the failings of Vista. I will save you from that here. But I will point out while Bill Gates was touting the "rapid sales" numbers, Steve Ballmer was telling the press that they were considering extending Windows XP sales and three leading PC makers Dell, HP and Lenovo said they would STILL load Windows XP even if Microsoft decides not to sell it anymore.

How many people bought Vista or got pre-installed on a new PC and rolled it back to Windows XP to get a usable computer? A lot!

The terrible failure of Windows Vista sure helped Apple sell a lot more Macs!

Microsoft and Search Microsoft with its OWN technology, engineers and lots and lots of money spent has not been able to make a dent in Google search numbers, even though Microsoft controls over 90 percent of the desktop. Their plan was to buy Yahoo the number 2 search company. Some claim that the first order of business was to "convert" Yahoo to Microsoft's OWN technologies.

Now that they failed to buy out Yahoo (although, it may not be over yet) they claim they have other plans using some in house talent and technologies that will help them best Google. All while Google's recent search numbers show they have yet again gained and are almost up to 70 percent in the U.S. and beat 80 percent in Europe. Heavy use of hallucinogens?

Zune Sales Zunes sales are dismal compared to Apple's iPod. Selling only 2 million units since they went on sale in November 2006. Apple sold 10.6 million iPods last quarter alone.

Part of the problem is the Zune has been slow to innovate and add features. Only recently adding video content and some podcast features. Still no audiobooks or movie rentals. The customer experience has not been that great.

Right now it appears that the Zune is still trying to catch up to the "classic" iPods which Apple is moving like a bullet to replace with much more feature rich and powerful devices like the iPod touch and the iPhone. looks like Microsoft is lost in a fog and digging in the wrong place. Tying the Zune to the Xbox 360 has not faired that well with consumers.

All the Zune really accomplished was to take sales away from Microsoft's former "PlaysForSure" partners without even touching Apple and the iPod.

Microsoft is one of the largest sellers of DRM technology and has continually screwed it up badly. Microsoft purposely killed off Windows Media Player for the Mac in an attempt to lock out Macs and iPods from Microsoft's DRM as if they were the market leader. Making their own DRM not compatible with the iPod has proved to be a bad move.

This has only helped Apple, the iPod and the iTunes Store. Apple does not have a proprietary music format or license DRM and has benefited from the use of DRM in the music industry at the expense of Microsoft.

Windows Mobile Market Share "Microsoft expects sales of its Windows Mobile platform products will account for 40% of the global smartphone market in fiscal 2012 (July 2011-June 2012)", according to Eddie Wu, managing director of Microsoft ODM embedded devices.

This is the latest delusion from Microsoft. Sure if you don't count Apple's iPhone or RIM's Blackberry as "smartphones." Even then, only maybe. More "fuzzy math?"

I will remind you it was Steve Ballmer that made fun of the iPhone when it launched only to see Microsoft's Windows Mobile phones get trounced and surpassed in sales in the first six months of the iPhone's availability.

"Microsoft currently focuses its efforts on promoting the Windows Mobile 6.1 operating system (OS) and the company has no plans to launch Windows Mobile 7 until 2009", Wu also stated.

It will take Microsoft that long to "copy" the functionality and try to mimic the ease of use of the "current" iPhone till then. Reason? Microsoft has no modular operating system like Apple has with OS X that allows them to easily port it over to handheld devices like a phone, Internet tablet, or Apple TV like device. They claim to be working on one. Each version of Windows gets bigger, slower, more processor and battery hungry. That includes Windows Mobile. How is it possible the "OS" company with the largest share is so far behind? Maybe chasing Google and Sony is not such a great idea.

The handheld computing device is the future as more people move to wireless Internet and away from their desk. This is why Apple and Google are chasing the mobile phone.

The iPhone will continue to hurt Windows Mobile phone sales with the launch of new iPhone models, global rollout, Apple's SDK (software developers kit) allowing for third party applications, and the App Store that will make installing these apps as easy as a click or a touch of a finger.

It is estimated that about 20 percent or more handsets will adopt the Linux OS by 2013 (Market Research Firm ABI Research). Google's Android is based on Linux and Nokia sells some popular Linux based handheld devices.

Microsoft better make more use of their own products like an Excel spreadsheet when making these predictions. They are sounding more like the government lately than a leading tech company.